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Last Updated: 4:14 PM GMT on November 07, 2009
— Last Comment: 1:22 AM GMT on November 08, 2009
Good day to all!
IDA has regained Tropical Storm strength, as posted in my forecast yesterday. As of the 10:00 a.m. advisory from the NHC, the following information was posted: 10:00 AM EST Sat Nov 7 Location: 17.9°N 84.1°W Max sustained: 60 mph Moving: N at 9 mph Min pressure: 997 mb / 29.44 in IDA has stalled somewhat, but based on the current forecast steering layers maps from PSU e-WALL site, and current Water Vapor Loop imagery, IDA should shortly pick up a temporary motion to the NW, possibly out to 12 hrs. Right now, IDA is being influenced by a combination of different factors...EPAC 96E, and two trofs coming in from the west, as well as the ridge north of her beginning to progress eastward.  This accounts for the stall. As 96E and the trofs get a little closer to her, the track will have a tendency to bend to the left, temporarily, before the flow of the trofs begin to move her more north, then eventually NE. I concur (basically) with the NHC track, however during the next 12-18 hours, I am on the left side of model guidance. She should begin to turn north as projected, however I feel at this time, based on the forecast steering information, a sharper NE to ENE mition may be in order near days 4-5. Now, that's not to say that the NHC track won't pan out...but it will all depend on the forward speed of IDA...a little faster system, then a more ENE to E path at the end of the forecast period, which could bring her inland anywhere from the Big Bend area of Florida, to near the Tampa Bay area. A little slower, then the track depicting a SE push could materialize. IDA FLOATER LOOP As far as strength, shear forecast maps had not updated from earlier, but with the storm's structure as it is, she is aiding in her own upper level anticyclone, albeit very small in area. Based on the current shear forecast, conditons in the upper levels, although not optimal, could be conducive enough for her to reach Category 1 status again, and I would not rule out the chance, albeit not high at the moment, of CAT 2 before passing through the Yucatan Channel. The Hybrid system in the BOC should begin to move NNE as the trofs mentioned get closer...in fact, this and IDA are almost basically going to be in the same steering regime. The possibility exists of this Hybrid merging with IDA in a few days. There is a degree of uncertainty with this forecast though, and I'll have a better picture on that once IDA enters the GOMEX.  Regardless of either scenario, there is a lot of energy to deal with, and the GOMEX is going to be a nasty place over the next week. Wherever IDA makes land fall, I would AT LEAST look for moderate to possibly strong TS force conditions...again, BASED ON THE CURRENT ANALYSIS PARAMETERS. I STRONGLY RECOMMEND all residents from the central Gulf Coast states, to the Tampa Florida area monitor this situation VERY CLOSE. I further recommend that ALL residents in the same areas, STAY OFF THE WATER AND AWAY FROM THE BEACHES UNTIL THIS EVENT IS FINISHED! LET'S NOT GET A CASE OF TERMINAL STUPIDITY. FOR USCG MLCLANT/LANTAREA: Recommend any floating units in the path take immediate evasive action, and units along the coast from AL to west FL be prepared to initiate their Heavy WX porcedures on short notice if needed. I'll be out the remainder of the afternoon, but will update later tonight. "Storm"
Good evening!Ida re-enters the Caribbean.Tropical Depression IDA has re-entered the Caribbean Sea.As of the 4:00 P.M. EST Advisory from the NHC, the following information was posted:4:00 PM EST Fri Nov 6Location: 15.7°N 83.9°WMax sustained: 35 mphMoving: N at 8 mphMin pressure: 1007 mb / 29.74 in.IDA is still moving slowly to just east of north (based on Shortwave IR imagery), and I expect this motion to continue for only the next 2-4 hours, with a turn more to th...
Greetings,Looks like the 2009 hurricane season is going out with a bang.First up...Tropical Depression IDA.Tropical Depression IDA continues to be located over or just north of the Nicaragua/Honduran border. She is presently moving slowly to the north, which is confirmed on satellite loop imagery this afternoon.The following information was posted by the NHC on their 10:00 A.M. EST Advisory:10:00 AM EST Fri Nov 6Location: 15.0°N 84.0°WMax sustained: 35 mphMoving:...
Good morning!I must say, I am rather impressed with this system, seeings how there is a lack of substantial TCHP in the area.As of 7:00 a.m. EST, IDA was upgraded to a CATEGORY 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The following was posted by the NHC on their Intermediate Advisory:7:00 AM EST Thu Nov 5Location: 12.8°N 83.4°WMax sustained: 75 mphMoving: NW at 7 mphMin pressure: 987 mb / 29.15 inThe hurricane is displaying an excellent CDO and banding at the mom...
Good afternoon/evening!UPDATE: AS OF 4:00 P.M., TD 11 WAS UPGRADED TO TS IDAThe Tropical Disturbance I've been monitoring had become better organized this morning, and has developed into Tropical Depression Eleven. Recent Aircraft Reconaissance reports indicate the depression may have already reached Tropical Storm status. If so, the system would be named IDA. The following was posted by the NHC as of 4:00 P.M.4:00 PM EST Wed Nov 4Location: 12.0°N 82.7°WMax sus...
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